So, who's gonna win Survivor?

Since I don't have television, I was able to watch the last 4 episodes of Survivor in a row thanks to the TiFaux efforts of my sister, up to last week's ep when Kvetching Kathy was kicked to the kurb. So, for entertainment purposes only (please, no betting), here's my handicapping of the Super 7:

1) Rob - Rob's just been playing the fucking shit out of this game, and everyone else save #2 is in his power. Right now he's the Howard Dean of the remaining Survivors, so far ahead it's hard to imagine anyone else could win this...

...and therein lies the rub; like Dean, Rob's got a big target on his back, and it's just a question of whether people will get their shit together to recognize him as a threat and kick him off. There's also the jury issue, you gotta think Lex Loser and Krybaby Kathy are going to vote for almost anyone else. If he continues to adjust and play, though, he'll probably garner enough Richard-Hatch-like respect to gain 4 votes.

2) Amber - I actually admire her game even more than Rob's. The way she managed to avoid elimination by outsmarting Lex and Kathy was amazing, I've never seen any Survivor manage to talk his/her way out of elimination before. It also should be relatively easy for her to garner votes since she's so likable (again, Kathy notwithstanding).

If there's a weakness in her game, though, it's that she's so savvy it may be hard for her tribemates to recognize it. The jury might reward Rob's overt style and simply see Amber as Rob's underling (her Outback reputation won't help there). It may also be easier for jury members to admit they were outplayed by Rob than outsmarted by Amber. She might need to win the final immunity challenge, too; I can see pretty much anyone, including Rob, voting her out third to avoid going into the jury with her.

3) Jenna - She's looking strong because it seems she got a foothold both ways. Rob and Amber seem to trust her enough to take her to the final 3, and she's savvy enough to form an anti-Rob alliance. As one of the original Alliance members, she certainly should know when to stab Rob and Amber in the back, and she may just be waiting for her time to strike.

4) Shii Ann - Wait, wait, I know what you're thinking, but hear me out. Shii Ann's so annoying and useless that she's this season's Johnny Fairplay. She is the Survivor EVERYONE wants to take into the jury, and there's very little evidence that she can win a challenge or unite other people against Rob/Amber. That makes her the perfect Survivor to be used by Rob/Amber to strengthen their core (they only need 4), and Shii Ann will probably jump at any offer since she feels so vulnerable right now. If I had to guess how it's going to go down, this could be the alliance formed to take out the three below.

And frankly, I'd LOVE to see Shii Ann in the final two, just to see how she justifies being given a million to the jury.

5) Tom - This dude's smarter than he acts on the show (how could he NOT be?), and he's been good at letting others spill their guts and figuring out where everyone stands. It seems that Rob has enough pull with him that Tom isn't going to pull a coup, but you never know. Tom's also less likely to pull off a string of immunity challenge wins than the two below, so he might be seen as safe to keep around.

6) Alicia - Personally, she's my favorite player remaining, but she's been a reactive player, and her animosity with Jenna (and the teaser for this week's show suggests a tiff with Shii Ann) means she probably couldn't get people to vote her way. Also, she's a threat to win immunity challenges, so they are probably going to keep an eye on her.

7) Rupert - The big guy's toast. First of all, the man has NO game, does he think he's going to win a million due to his fishing skills? Second, Sweetums is the most obvious physical specimen left, which means he's currently seen as the biggest threat. If he doesn't win immunity tonight, he's gone, and really he's going to have to sweep to make it to the jury.

So, that's how I'm calling it. I can't wait to be proven horribly, horribly wrong...